Distribution From 0 to 2 million DAU: One Developer's Story

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Chatterb0x

Guest
Thank you for sharing! One insight I gleaned was to produce an HTML5 version which segways into paid mobile version.
 

Hyomoto

Member
The words survivor bias come to mind, that and his own admission he got lucky ... and that he had a background specifically in the development and management of games on the web. "I just happened to be unique in a position to succeed and have every advantage. Anyone could have that." I mean, seriously: his story is, "I didn't want to work, and make the most money possible." I'm not sure that's the path that will take everyone to success, or even a path most people can take. Let's talk to some people who had nothing, tried everything and got nowhere. I bet there's something to be learned from them as well.
 
The words survivor bias come to mind, that and his own admission he got lucky ... and that he had a background specifically in the development and management of games on the web. "I just happened to be unique in a position to succeed and have every advantage. Anyone could have that." I mean, seriously: his story is, "I didn't want to work, and make the most money possible." I'm not sure that's the path that will take everyone to success, or even a path most people can take. Let's talk to some people who had nothing, tried everything and got nowhere. I bet there's something to be learned from them as well.
Ah yes I remember "survivor bias" from a GDC keynote speech from Vlambeer if I remember correct. I'll spare derailing the thread with my own story, but just say success stories are often the norm, because the failures just go to a day job and you never hear from them again. Plus who wants to read a failure story and know that there is no light at the end of the tunnel. You need to make games for your own amusement, because there's only a brick wall when it comes to making money.

There's quite a graveyard of games on Steam with less than 10 non key reviews.
 

Hyomoto

Member
Ah yes I remember "survivor bias" from a GDC keynote speech from Vlambeer if I remember correct. I'll spare derailing the thread with my own story, but just say success stories are often the norm, because the failures just go to a day job and you never hear from them again. Plus who wants to read a failure story and know that there is no light at the end of the tunnel. You need to make games for your own amusement, because there's only a brick wall when it comes to making money.

There's quite a graveyard of games on Steam with less than 10 non key reviews.
There's an old, but quite important story concerning the US army and our bombers. They wanted to add armor to improve the survivability of the planes so they did a study and plotted all the places that the planes were most often hit. However, one eagle-eyed individual, Abraham Wald, looked at the data and said, "Put armor everywhere these planes were never hit." While that might sound contradictory, what he noticed was only planes that made it back safely were able to be studied, and therefore he concluded that the places they had studied were precisely the locations a bomber could survive being hit. The tech industry is quite egregious when it comes to survivor bias because it likes to only track success stories, despite having an ample supply of failures to note, or more importantly: assuming that those who failed did something wrong and aren't worth noting.

If this truly worked, if this was truly the standard and not the exception, then all the other mobile developers who build competent, but simple advertising fueled games would also be millionaires.
 
There's an old, but quite important story concerning the US army and our bombers. They wanted to add armor to improve the survivability of the planes so they did a study and plotted all the places that the planes were most often hit. However, one eagle-eyed individual, Abraham Wald, looked at the data and said, "Put armor everywhere these planes were never hit." While that might sound contradictory, what he noticed was only planes that made it back safely were able to be studied, and therefore he concluded that the places they had studied were precisely the locations a bomber could survive being hit. The tech industry is quite egregious when it comes to survivor bias because it likes to only track success stories, despite having an ample supply of failures to note, or more importantly: assuming that those who failed did something wrong and aren't worth noting.

If this truly worked, if this was truly the standard and not the exception, then all the other mobile developers who build competent, but simple advertising fueled games would also be millionaires.
Now I know the term came from something actually life and death... rather than game development related. It now seems a bit insulting to be used in such a trivial way.
 
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Guest User

Guest
Now I know the term came from something actually life and death... rather than game development related. It now seems a bit insulting to be used in such a trivial way.
if anything, at least that's a good reason to keep it in mind.

this sort of bias has existed for probably as long as we have tbh. a similar situation is when the British army started issuing metal helmets for the first time in WWI. statistically speaking, the number of head injuries increased tenfold...and that's all a lot of people needed to hear before coming to the assumption that giving troops metal helmets made them more willing to stick their heads out and get hurt.

in reality, the reason head injuries increased so much is because the number of fatalities from head wounds decreased as a result of the extra protection the helmets afforded. in other words, what would have been deaths just became...well, injuries, and more soldiers got to go home alive.

so yea, at least there's the benefit that maybe if we learn to recognize it in less severe situations, we'll be able to recognize it when lives are stake.
not saying your thoughts are invalid, just trying to provide a ray of little ray of light in it. :)
 

Hyomoto

Member
Now I know the term came from something actually life and death... rather than game development related. It now seems a bit insulting to be used in such a trivial way.
To piggy back off of @hipstercapitalist: what it comes down to is when looking at data, you must ask: what am I not seeing? Who isn't here to tell their story? While not everyone (thankfully) is fighting literally for life and death, to many people they are taking a risk trying to be self-employed, to earn a living for their families, even if it's something 'trivial' like making games. That is where something like this can be particularly insidious, because people like this probably buried quite a few people on their way to where they are. While they no longer work at Yahoo!, many other people still do and we'd be hypocritical to think the only difference between this man and those people is that he took a chance. And we'd be particularly stupid to think this can simply be replicated on any type of scale.

Again, if this worked, if this was true, if this advice was sound, every person who ever got into mobile development would be rich, or at least making a rather comfortable living. Given that isn't the case, I strongly suspect the biggest takeaway from this article is that a little luck and lot of experience can go a long way to success.
 
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Guest User

Guest
to many people they are taking a risk trying to be self-employed, to earn a living for their families, even if it's something 'trivial' like making games.
that actually reminds me, in recent news the Cuphead devs apparently did just that. it worked out for them, but heh.
 

Hyomoto

Member
that actually reminds me, in recent news the Cuphead devs apparently did just that. it worked out for them, but heh.
Sometimes it does, and I think Cuphead had the right amount of publicity (thanks to Microsoft) and the right aesthetic to stand out in a crowded market. That said, it would be interesting to see what their actual take ended up being. Working with a publisher is generally a case of giving up most of your work. Even in the article above, while they do let you keep your IP and even take it with you (which is a very positive part of the article), Microsoft and the other large game publishers are generally not so generous.

The fact that Cuphead is a Microsoft exclusive is a poignant aspect, there are plenty of Switch and PS4 owners who would gladly have purchased it on their platform of choice.
 
that actually reminds me, in recent news the Cuphead devs apparently did just that. it worked out for them, but heh.
With Cuphead its justified. Meanwhile, there's Super Cyborg and I'm uncertain if it worked out as glamorous for them. Both games are 8 directional run & guns like Contra. Super Cybrog... is a Contra clone while Cuphead hangs its hat on its art and 90% boss fights. Style sells.

Anyway, we've derailed the conversation long enough. This is about GameAnalytics to hype someone's GameAnalytics.
 
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